Monthly Archives: August 2019

Aug 28

So, you want to trade?

Trader's Mindset

I am writing this for the complete new trader who wants to get into trading. While I am not a professional, the following may be valuable for your consideration. The first lesson for a trader is to preserve capital. If you only have a tiny amount of risk capital then you need to be careful […]

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Aug 28

Key insights on trade frequency

Trader's Mindset

I have had some key insights into trading frequency on my mind today. I have had very high win ratio with my discretionary market calls in years past. However, they were always low frequency where I was able to integrate a lot information and analysis into each call. Generalizing it makes perfect sense that more […]

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Aug 23

On the trade war

Markets

I have been considering this trade war, and it is playing out much like I anticipated: however, I am not sure exactly how it goes. China did not want to give up what they considered a long-term advantage and did not take the low risk option of compromise. While it seemed like good long-term planning, […]

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Aug 23

What Risk Measures Don’t Tell Us

System Trading

In a recent post, I shared that risk measures are only useful provided all else is kept equal– which is practically never the case. It is one reason some naive traders may overestimate their performance. The fact an independent trader might make 50% in a year does not mean that they are trading better than […]

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Aug 22

Simple Strategy To Beat Most CTA’s

Markets

I am going to describe a simple strategy that I conjecture will beat most Commodity Trading Advisors out there. I suspect that some of you are salivating at the prospects. However, before I share it with you I must share that I have not did much in the way of analysis on it yet, and […]

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Aug 22

Jim Cramer Is Not Really That Bad

Markets

Jim Cramer is not really that bad. Many people cite Jim Cramer as offering poor advise because his predictions have a poor track record. However, it misses the point in a few ways. First, he gets people excited and interested in investing and second, my understanding, is that he bullish most of the time. And, […]

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Aug 17

Want to scalp the ES? Try MES

Trader's Mindset

I hear a lot of traders who want to try scalping the ES for a couple ticks. The new traders today have heard of this style but do not understand its origins, when it can work, why it is limiting, when it works best, and why it may not be the best way to trade […]

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Aug 15

The Next AMZN, AAPL, Etc.

Markets

Now, historically I have did a minimal of actual stock investing. However, I have decided that I should have some investments separate from my trading work as an additional way to win. I wanted to look at what some of the biggest gaining names had in common, and how one might have identified and captured […]

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Aug 12

Longer-Term Market Outlook

Markets

I wanted to identify a few themes I am weighting on the longer term. My basic thesis is that the market will remain bullish until uncertainty around the 2020 election causes a profit taking opportunity. I have not looked at this quantitatively: however, I think the top is likely to be around September 2020. This […]

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