One problem with traditional backtesting is that it relies on the presupposition that there are repeating predictive patterns in the market. In fact, most trading methodologies rely on this assumption. And yet, we know the disclaimer that past performance is not indicative of future results. And, yet backtesting largely assumes that the future will be […]
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Beginners are taught the importance of developing a trading plan. The problem with a trading plan is that most trading plans will read like a wish-list. They are not likely to be based on facts or empirical evidence. Example of a well-intentioned but poor trading plan: My plan is to trade the ES using tape […]
Continue readingI wanted to share what I see as working in my own trading when I use discretion and what is not working. What tends to be working Predicting/forecasting direction primarily on smallest time frames for a few points at most. Predicting and picking good points where the market is likely to turn on a medium […]
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