Right now, I think the key themes driving the markets are rising interest rates and higher oil prices. High oil prices were cited as possible drivers for the previous recessions. The hypothesis would be the Fed will need to raise interest rates to slow down growth if oil prices continue to rally or if not … Continue reading Can the S&P 500 move higher with higher oil prices?

I share an idea to monitor for possible geopolitical or currency risk by using Google trends to track the change in interest in Bitcoin and other crypto currencies. A comprehensive search would need to adjust for other factors such as news events, mining interest, speculation interest, etc. A quick review suggests possible increasing interest from … Continue reading Alternative Data Sources: Ideas to monitor for geopolitical and currency risk and crypto interest

While not normally providing analysis and outlook on this blog, I thought I'd highlight a few factors that may be influencing Bitcoin in the near term. The backdrop has been that Bitcoin managed to put in several higher weekly consecutive closes before negative sentiment, jawboning, expressed by influential investors and technical resistance of 10k led … Continue reading Near-term factors likely to influence BTC

My goal for the past several years has been to seek synergistic solutions to enable myself and, perhaps other discretionary traders, to use their existing strengths while taking advantage of the best algorithmic and "quantitative insights". However, only recently, have I learned that there is an actual word for this called the "quantamental" approach. It … Continue reading Quantamental Approaches and Focus

Both discretionary and system trading offer unique and selective benefits. One of the advantages that discretionary trading offers is the ability to adapt to changing market conditions. Trading tactics can be more relevant to the current market conditions at the cost of greater uncertainty (less confidence). On the other hand, trading systems are typically verified … Continue reading Greater confidence, greater relevance

Great trading is never easy but it should not be difficult. Some traders may not recognize the difference between something that is "effortful" versus "difficult". Trading with effort is a state of trading where one is fully focused but able to accurately read and respond to the changing market. Trading becomes difficult when (1) the … Continue reading Effort vs Difficult

Recently, Dr. Steenbarger shared that he had an experience of trading in flow. His experience reminds me of experiences when I have traded at my best. On the other hand, if there is too much that is discretionary then it will be more difficult to perform in higher stress situations. A key question a trader … Continue reading Do more and less

Recently, I took some new methods I had been trading in a realistic simulator (Rithmic) and went live. My simulated results are shown below: While,  I did have some larger losing days then I would have liked in the simulator: overall I thought the results were promising. As an aside, I didn't actually lose more … Continue reading Post Mortem: What Went Wrong

Recently, a trader asked for help at futures.io in regards to sticking to their daily loss limit. I have had, unfortunate, experience with this problem, as well. However, I think I have a good understanding and solutions developed by carefully breaking down the ways this problem can occur and their variations. I wanted to recap … Continue reading Daily Loss Limit Solutions

In the list below, I share seven ways I am working to improve my trading. I do have quantitative systems but my core focus is on harnessing my tape reading skill to inform my bias. Discretionary trading is generally more difficult to realize in stress of live markets.  As such, training must be more rigorous … Continue reading Seven Ideas To Improve Your Trading