Many studies have shown that when edges are published by academics or become popularized that the markets become more efficient and those edges cease working or lose at least some of their effectiveness. A really brief story of how the market works. In the beginning, technical analysis was discovered. This initially provided advantage over the … Continue reading Explaining trading profits
While Tom Lee owns his consensus forecast, as a trader I know that markets often take out short term participants before heading to their eventual targets. As such, I am still weighting whether or not there will be a delayed "post consensus" bump. The thesis for this trade would be that short term traders were … Continue reading Tom Lee Owns His Bad Consensus Forecast But Was He Wrong?
Bitcoin, and some of the other cryptos, are assets which could gain or lose a tremendous amount. In fact, it would not be surprise me if the price does both, perhaps even multiple times in the future. Most professional traders are focused on finding patterns and edge. In order to realize outsize gains, typically leverage … Continue reading Investing vs Trading Bitcoin?
I wanted to introduce the idea for a metric that may be useful for discretionary traders, and yes, even system traders. The idea stems from this idea that markets make transitional moves that can be captured in real-time and jumps which can only be captured if positioned in advance. The percentage of moves that occur … Continue reading Trade-ability Measure: A Measure of Jumps
I have a passion for trading, and I am a professional software developer but I simply have too much programming work to develop all my ideas. Are you a professional software developer or trader interested in learning how to develop trading systems or graybox / quantamental tools to aide discretionary trading? Focus would be on … Continue reading Trading partner opportunity
It looks like Bitcoin faces serious headwinds. It looks like regulation and in particular taxation treatment might be a hurdle factor, although I am not an expert on that. Combine that with possible new and better coins on the wings equating to increased competition, MT GOX liquidation, and declining overall interest from the general public … Continue reading Bitcoin outlook update
In addition to reading the tape, quantitative price analysis, and technical analysis, are there any tools we can use to monitor whether or not Tom Lee's bullish outlook on Bitcoin based on Consensus is playing out or fizzling out? One possibility might be to use the Google trends to monitor searches for both Bitcoin and … Continue reading Monitoring Tom Lee’s Consensus Bullish Outlook
Reuters reported that Gemini has won approval to offer privacy focused ZCash. While recently, CME group announced the creation of an Etherium index. Recently, I shared analysis that might suggest that Bitcoin could be weighed down by MT GOX liquidator needing to sell over 100k+ coins. This is certainly another wrinkle. If we imagine deflation … Continue reading Deflationary spiral possible for Bitcoin?
Right now, I think the key themes driving the markets are rising interest rates and higher oil prices. High oil prices were cited as possible drivers for the previous recessions. The hypothesis would be the Fed will need to raise interest rates to slow down growth if oil prices continue to rally or if not … Continue reading Can the S&P 500 move higher with higher oil prices?