On the speculative radar


Mar 20

I wanted to share some of my speculative and thematic trade ideas. These should not be viewed as recommendations.

  • DIS (Disney): Bullish. This stock has moved down fairly dramatically from previous trading range. It looks like the catalyst was acquisition of 21st Century Fox. Depending on how it opens, my idea would be to sell a put spread on anticipation of bullish bounce. Some of the things I might take into consideration, if it gaps up then I might avoid it. As well, if it opens down with no buy in then I might look to get better pricing. 1-3 days. Conviction 5/10.
  • Dell (DELL): Bullish. My current thesis is bullish for a couple reasons. First, it is relisting and thus I reason, though haven’t checked, that funds will need to acquire it on every dip. Second, the stock is trading at or near 52 week highs. I think the brand also deserves some premium. I will be looking to sell put spreads or buy calls keeping my risk low. 3-6 months. Conviction 6/10.
  • Crude Oil (CL): Bearish-neutral. CL has run up on improving sentiment without hardly any pullbacks. There are also some driver concerns. It is nearing area which was previous resistance. I may look to sell a bullish call spread or buy a put spread in anticipation for a pull back. 1-5 days. Conviction: 5/10 (timing critical).
  • Soybean or Corn Futures (ZK): Bullish-neutral. A trade that could be “paired” with the short crude trade would be a bullish commodity given they may both be affected by overall economic factors and China. 1-30 days. Conviction 1/10.

About the Author

The author is passionate about markets. He has developed top ranked futures strategies. His core focus is (1) applying machine learning and developing systematic strategies, and (2) solving the toughest problems of discretionary trading by applying quantitative tools, machine learning, and performance discipline. You can contact the author at curtis@beyondbacktesting.com.