Tom Lee Owns His Bad Consensus Forecast But Was He Wrong?

Markets

May 21

While Tom Lee owns his consensus forecast, as a trader I know that markets often take out short term participants before heading to their eventual targets. As such, I am still weighting whether or not there will be a delayed “post consensus” bump. The thesis for this trade would be that short term traders were shaken out who positioned for the rally. With the weak hands removed, and the public no longer watching perhaps the market will show its hand.

Granted, I am not seeing the strongest evidence for the bullish thesis yet but it is something I am monitoring. At the moment, I see the picture as mixed with possibility to go either way. I would like a stronger narrative supporting the bullish thesis. The MT GOX liquidation and regulation issues may still be weighting down the price. Also, to be fair, Lee still has bullish longer term price forecast for Bitcoin.

 

About the Author

Curtis is passionate about markets. He has developed top ranked futures strategies. His core focus is (1) applying machine learning and developing systematic strategies, and (2) solving the toughest problems of discretionary trading by applying quantitative tools, machine learning, and performance discipline.

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