Bitcoin outlook update

Markets

May 17

It looks like Bitcoin faces serious headwinds. It looks like regulation and in particular taxation treatment might be a hurdle factor, although I am not an expert on that. Combine that with possible new and better coins on the wings equating to increased competition, MT GOX liquidation, and declining overall interest from the general public suggest trouble for longs. I have been weighting the possibility of a serious selling event over the past several days. At the same time, I have been monitoring for any bullish shift that would support the historical precedent suggested by Tom Lee’s analysis. I noticed sometimes that interest picked up some weeks after the Consensus event or appeared too.

At the moment, it is not clear but I have started to weight the probability of another leg down before any recovery as more likely.

Relevant discussions:

https://www.ft.com/content/5a9d757e-5836-11e8-bdb7-f6677d2e1ce8

About the Author

Curtis is passionate about markets. He has developed top ranked futures strategies. His core focus is (1) applying machine learning and developing systematic strategies, and (2) solving the toughest problems of discretionary trading by applying quantitative tools, machine learning, and performance discipline. You can contact him at curtis@beyondbacktesting.com.

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