Future of BTC/XBT?


Nov 27

Both the CME and CBOE have announced they will offer BTC futures in the near future. This is very good news. The ability to trade on a regulated exchange is welcome (although not having free market choice is never desirable).  Many people are speculating about whether BTC is a bubble. However, few participants are considering the possibility of what might happen if it is not a bubble.

It is unlikely that the current pace of gains can be maintained. The simplest way to view BTC today is like that of a call option, with 100% the maximum that you can lose (and realistically at current levels a likely loss less than 50%-60%), and a much greater upside.

But, what happens if it is (1) not a bubble and (2) cannot maintain unrealistic gains? In that case, we can only imagine that the volatility will drop. But, remember many of the critics have been claiming that the high volatility is what makes it unsuitable as a store of value.

It seems likely that today the primary value of Bitcoin is as a speculative asset. But, as larger traders start to trade then it is likely that the primary value might shift to that of a store of value. If that happens, we can anticipate both the volatility and the rate of return to drop. It might start to correlate more with other assets as well. Of course, if the network is upgraded then it might eventually serve more of a role as a currency, as well.


About the Author

The author is passionate about markets. He has developed top ranked futures strategies. His core focus is (1) applying machine learning and developing systematic strategies, and (2) solving the toughest problems of discretionary trading by applying quantitative tools, machine learning, and performance discipline. You can contact the author at curtis@beyondbacktesting.com.