Jump from highest uncertainty

Trader's Mindset

Jun 22

I have had an uncanny knack for predicting the market across all time frames. Something I have observed though is that the market will tend to jump at my highest point of uncertainty. Unfortunately, this jump is often at the same level that one will want to close their trade with the assumption it isn’t working, either in time or price. In the past, I have thought of using random timers to avoid closing out at the jump point. Another option is once you enter a trade is not to move the stop or target and treat it simply like a binary option. The goal is to be able to trade the sentiment of the crowd without getting gamed by the market.

The jump points are especially aligned to take advantage of short term traders but can be especially pronounced near market closes.

About the Author

The author is passionate about markets. He has developed top ranked futures strategies. His core focus is (1) applying machine learning and developing systematic strategies, and (2) solving the toughest problems of discretionary trading by applying quantitative tools, machine learning, and performance discipline. You can contact the author at curtis@beyondbacktesting.com.